Current strategic assessments predict that the expected unilateral declaration of independence by the Palestinian Arab Authority headed by Abu Mazen at the United Nations in September will likely lead to the collapse of his government and cause Hamas to make its move to take control of the areas administered by the Palestinian Arab Authority in Judea and Samaria.
It’s already clear that a Palestinian Arab state will not be established. The United States intends to impose a veto on a unilateral Palestinian Arab demand for a Security Council resolution of support. Since new states are only established through a Security Council decision, then the outcome is already predictable. So why does Abu Mazen, the unelected President of the Palestinian Arab Authority continue and charge the shore, like a whale charging the shore again and again in an unexplained frenzy until he dies?
The inevitable Palestinian failure at the United Nations will be strategic in nature and will be used by Hamas to gather steam and turn the Palestinian Arab street against Abu Mazen and Fatah blaming him for the harm that has been caused to their cause. As expected, Palestinian Arab violence and terror will be a likely result, forcing Israel to respond militarily focusing international media attention on the Israeli response rather than on the Palestinian Arab provocations. So the question must be asked, why has Abu Mazen ignored this very likely self-defeating scenario, bringing on through his own actions the collapse of his own government, endangering the relationship of his shaky government with the Obama administration, with Congress, and the Europeans? Losing the economic and funding lifeline that has kept the Palestinian Arab economy running and for paying the salary of hundreds of thousands of Palestinian Arabs.
In the meanwhile, Prime Minister Netanyahu has already warned Abu Mazen that should the Palestinian Arab Authority seek to establish a Palestinian Arab state unilaterally, the Oslo Agreement that has been the backbone of all peace negotiations since 1994 shall be null and void. The taxes collected on behalf of the Palestinian Arab Authority and funding transfers will end leading to the bankruptcy of the Abu Mazen government. So, what's behind Abu Mazen's actions, maybe he knows something that we don't? Just maybe, he is taking actions that in the long run are actually in line with President Obama's preferred course of action concerning the Middle East.
Even before the current upheaval in Egypt that arose, and for that matter the whole "Arab Spring", President Obama has gone out of his way to legitimize the Islamic Brotherhood movement that has inspired Jihadists all over the world. He has actively encouraged engaging the Muslim Brotherhood despite their stated goals to eliminate Israel. They are a self declared mortal enemy of America and Western Democracies, and indeed all non-Muslim governments throughout the world. This has not stopped Obama from legitimizing a fundamentally illegitimate movement, and paving the way for the Muslim Brotherhood to use democratic processes that will come to an end as soon as it attains ultimate power, similar to what happened in Iran with the Ayatollah's.
Abu Mazen in adopting this clearly self-defeating strategy by seeking a unilateral declaration of independence at the UN is in actuality preparing his exit from political life, taking with him the hundreds of millions of American aid money that he and his sons have quietly grafted, cheating their own people, keeping in mind that since 1994, USAID alone has given the Palestinian Authority no less than 2.9 billions dollars. What better pretext to take the money and run than enabling the local chapter of the Muslim Brotherhood, Hamas to take over. What seems to be another poor calculation is in actuality the best deal in town for another crooked Arab political leader to leave the stage elegantly in tact with the booty. Abu Mazen believes that when push comes to shove, Obama will abandon him as he has abandoned all of the Arab leaders who have cooperated with the West. So what better strategies than fulfilling Obama's ideological goal of letting the Muslim Brotherhood take over the Middle East?
Create an intolerable political situation that will impel Hamas to take action, Abu Mazen's government will fall and he will be forced to resign, leaving the field wide open for the Muslim Brotherhood to step in.
Obama has acquitted himself brilliantly as a master of mouthing common sense platitudes on both domestic and foreign affairs issues, but has a near perfect record of saying and doing the wrong thing in furtherance of those common sense platitudes. As we approach the September deadline, we should all be tuned to the drama being played out as a kind of theatre of the absurd. What will be a seemingly inane strategic blunder will be in actuality a success for Obama's ideological policy of supporting political movements like the Muslim Brotherhood that threaten the interests of the United States and the free world.