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Ron Jager
Ron grew up in the South Bronx of New York, making Aliyah in 1980. Served for 25 years in the IDF as a Mental Health Field Officer in operational units. Prior to retiring was Commander of the Central Psychiatric Clinic for Reserve Solders at Tel-Hashomer. Since retiring has been involved in strategic consultancy to NGO's and communities in the Gaza Envelope on resiliency projects to assist first responders and communities. Ron has written numerous articles for outlets in Israel and abroad focusing on Israel and the Jewish world.
Defeating Iran, without firing a bullet
The greatest victory is that which requires no battle.” (Sun Tzu, The Art of War).
This famous quote sums up Israel’s superior strategic position against Iran and her local proxies; Hamas in the Gaza Strip, Hezbollah in Lebanon, armed militias in Syria, and Palestinian Arab terror cells throughout Judea and Samaria {aka 'West Bank'}. For the first time in history, Iran openly declared war on Israel by firing, from Iranian sovereign territory, over 300 drones, cruise, and ballistic missiles towards the State of Israel.
Iran defines itself as the Iranian Islamic Republic, and acts as a kind of regional superpower. The anti-Semitic rhetoric of the Iranian regime is reminiscent of the Nazi period of anti-Semitism that promoted “redemptive anti-Semitism”, a form of anti-Semitism that seeks the total annihilation of Jews so as to “free humanity” and “redeem” those that liberate the world of Jews. To advance this Nazi inspired form of “redemptive anti-Semitism”, Iran supports terror groups and anti-Semitic organizations throughout the world that threaten Israel and Jews who live in Democratic societies such as the United States and the nations of the European Union. Iran like most Islamic nations, are believers of their own self-glorifying propaganda, half-truths, and historical fabrications. Iran is unable to free itself from the shackles of their centuries old sense of inferiority of the West, with Israel representing the spear lodged in the heart of the Islamic nation in the Middle East.
In recent years, the Iranian regime has taken pride in their missile and drone technologies. They have paraded these offensive missiles at every opportunity threatening to attack not only Israel, but also Muslim Sunni nations that are aligned with the United States, England, and other Western nations. Despite the Iranian rhetoric and hype that sounds more like a modern version of “A Thousand and One Night” folklore stories of Aladdin and Ali Baba, it seems much of Iran’s military is outdated, technologically inferior, and generations behind the defensive and offensive capabilities of the State of Israel.
This past week, despite the massive unheard of missile attack by Iran against Israel, 99% of the drones, and missiles either crashed in Iranian territory or where destroyed by the Israeli Air Force and “made in Israel” defensive anti-missile systems. The Iranians reluctantly realized that their offensive systems against Israel are largely worthless, and unworthy of a nation that calls itself a regional superpower.
What began during the era of the Reagan Presidency including the Arrow development program within the “Star Wars” military procurement period, seemed at the time like science fiction. With persistency and determination to counter any existential threat, Israel’s defense industries including Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) and Rafael, the Israel Defense Forces and the Israel Air Force have developed the most advanced air defense systems in the world, and this past week we were given proof of the efficacy of these systems.
As the discussion now turns to what should be Israel’s response to the Iranian attack on the State of Israel, it is important to be reminded that Israel’s main strategic goal is to complete the dismantlement and destruction of the Hamas terror organization, the withdrawal of all Hezbollah forces to areas north of the Litani River in Lebanon, and the return of all the Oct 7 hostages being held in the Gaza Strip by Hamas. Should Israel’s proven military superiority over Iran be leveraged to achieve these goals without directly attacking Iran and widening the perimeters of the conflict? Will Israel’s deterrence against Iran be weakened or strengthened by not directly attacking Iran?
Sun Tzu wrote in “The Art of War”; "He will win who knows when to fight and when not to fight,” is the key to victory. Israel’s main objective against Iran is to prevent the Islamic regime from acquiring and developing nuclear weapons. To achieve this goal, Israel has wisely exposed as little as possible of her capabilities and technologies that can incapacitate Iran’s offensive military capabilities and nuclear arsenal. Directly attacking Iran would force Israel to expose prematurely its military and technological capabilities. Let’s not forget the lessons of the Gulf War in 1991, where Iraq launched 33 Scud missiles on Haifa and the greater Tel-Aviv region. At the time Prime Minister Shamir was urged by the United States not to respond and to allow the international coalition to act against Iraq, which they did.
Self-glorifying propaganda might very well go viral on social media, as Iranian leaders continue to threaten Israel despite Iran’s humiliating failure to show tangible results after attacking Israel. Iran’s inability to make good on these meaningless threats has also shown to astute observes that Iran in actuality wants to cut her losses by negotiating a face saving alternative rather than exposing her military and technological failures further humiliation.
In the same manner that Iran manipulates proxies to attack Israel, Iran can let its proxies pay the price for Iran’s decision to attack Israel. Should Iran order Hezbollah to move her forces in their entirety north of the Litani River and order the remaining forces of Hamas including its entire leadership to exit the Gaza Strip through Egypt, Israel would be spared the necessity of attacking Iran directly. This scenario can be implemented without firing a bullet while leaving the Iranians in the dark concerning Israel’s defensive and offensive superiority in the future.
Iran’s strategic blunder
For the first time, Iran’s attack from Iranian territory against the State of Israel, is not only a strategic blunder but also signifies the beginning of the end of the Islamic regime of Ayatollah’s as rulers of the State of Iran. The attack marks the first time Iran has launched a full-scale assault on Israel despite more than four decades of hostilities thru proxy forces throughout the Middle East and beyond.
At this hour, midnight between April 13-14, and after two waves of missile attacks on the State of Israel with a third wave expected towards the early morning hours, little if any damage has been reported throughout the country. Israel has not only successfully repelled various classes of missiles, but according to reports by military sources, Israel has succeeded in shooting down 99% of the missiles fired against Israel beyond Israel’s borders employing advanced air defense systems. This is an unprecedented defensive capability that has placed Israel’s at the technological forefront of anti-missile operational know-how. After over 200 drones and ballistic missiles fired on Israel by Iran, there are no reports of physical damage. The Iranian attack on the State of Israel has been a complete offensive operational failure and exposed Iran as a “paper tiger”, severely weakening her ambitions to be recognized as a regional superpower in the Middle East.
More importantly, military forces of the United States, Britain, and other members of the Western coalition have participated in shooting down missiles fired toward Israel by their forces located throughout the Middle East. At this hour the President of the United States, President Biden, expressed his complete support and American backing of Israel against Iranian aggression. Israel has complete legitimization to attack Iran and will most likely use this opportunity to destroy Iran’s strategic military capabilities including Iran’s nuclear forces. The military response by Israel is a strategic imperative and will strengthen Israel’s deterrence against Iran ensuring an extended period of stability in the Middle East.
Iran has in one misguided decision to attack Israel, wasted an almost impregnatable strategic situation. It is important to remember that Iran has no historical enemies, no irredentism, and no source of permanent tensions on its frontiers. Iran is well endowed with sources of energy, resources, and an educated population of close to 90 million Iranians. Iran has a distinct identity and culture, a unity denied many of her neighbors in the Middle East. Iran has failed to capitalize on these rich human and material resources due to an excessive cultivation of extreme Islamic ideology and promoting Islamic terror proxies throughout the Middle East and beyond.
What can explain Iran’s misguided decision to directly attack Israel? In recent weeks, daily demonstrations against the Netanyahu government have re-erupted after an extended period in which public support for anti-government political forces seemed to have abided. The Iranians seemed to have misinterpreted the implications of these demonstrations similar to Hamas’s mistaken interpretation of the demonstrations against Israel’s judicial reform over the past year. Both Hamas and the Iranian regime based their decisions to attack Israel on media reports that were biased and projected falsely that Israel going through a period of self-induced destruction from within. For the past year the broadcasted and printed media, social media, and political pundits have adopted an anti-Netanyahu agenda successfully conveying a sense that Israel is on the verge of civil war and incapable of responding to attacks by her enemies and defend herself. Instead, the very opposite has occurred; Hamas is on the verge of being totally destroyed as a military force and political movement as a result of misinterpreting Israel’s readiness and willingness to defend herself. Iran rather than learning from Hamas’s strategic blunder on Oct 7th, has deluded herself and made the very same mistake against Israel. The Iranians have failed to understand that the majority of the Israeli public is not represented by the small yet vocal demonstrators against the Netanyahu government. Despite the amplification and support given to these demonstrators by the media and progressive political parties in Israel, they represent only a miniscule proportion of the Israeli public.
What starts with the Jews never ends with the Jews. Those that embrace the Iranian regime who export terror and mass murder are a threat not only to Israel but no less a threat to Western civilization itself. The West has made the sanctity of human life a basic tenet of Western society. Understanding this existential necessity will enable Israel to respond and attack Iran destroying her capabilities of becoming a future threat against Israel, the United States and those additional Western nations that stand alongside her.
This evening, Senator Roger Wicker, R-Miss., the highest-ranking Republican on the Senate Armed Services Committee, said that the United States commitment to Israel is "unwavering." "This is the moment for the United States to show we stand together with our allies. Our shared enemies, including Iran and their proxies, need to know our commitment is unwavering," he said in a press release. "We must join with Israel to ensure that Iran’s aggression is met with resolute action and resounding strength."
Unwilling to be offended
The floodgates of rage, hatred, and revulsion against Jews have swept the streets and campuses of America; Muslim pro-Palestinian demonstrators and their supporters seem invincible and immune from being held accountable or even close to being prosecuted for assault or incitement. Police forces, district attorneys, and judicial courts have adopted a progressive agenda and are overly forgiving in response to Muslim aggression, a policy that invites escalation of anti-Semitism and anti-Israel terror against the Jews of America.
In attempting to decipher the volatility of these Muslim pro-Palestinian Arab demonstrators, the real question that we should be asking ourselves is why modern democratic societies pander and apologize for the actions of the most radical, violent and intolerant of the pro-Palestinian Arab demonstrators. Since October 7th, we have witnessed an unprecedented intensification of violence against Jews, with no expected de-escalation in the future. To understand up close how the anti-Jew and anti-Israel hatred has gotten out of control, the following example suffices: A Cornell student, 21-year-old Patrick Dai, allegedly posted threatening messages on a Greek life message board - "Watch out pig jews. jihad is coming. nowhere is safe. your synagogue will become graveyards. your women will be raped and your children will be beheaded. Glory to Allah," Dai allegedly wrote these words of incitement to murder on Oct. 28, according to a criminal complaint.
The broadcasted and printed media, social media, and the overwhelming majority of academia have over the years been at the forefront of defending the false accusations and vilification against Jews and Israel. Any attempt to demand accountability as opposed to a “cherry picking” presentation of facts that accuses Israel of committing genocide, apartheid, and ethnic-cleansing is met with counter claims of Islamophobia and a Muslim right not to be offended. But modern life in Democratic societies requires the willingness to be offended. As Jew hatred and anti-Israel violence have become a daily routine; the willingness of pro-Palestinian Arab demonstrators’ to be offended is not only lacking, but has fueled their fabricated sense of grievance against the Jews everywhere.
One might assume that the Palestinian Arab claim of grievance is based on demographic evidence, however the very opposite is the case. Concerning the claim of genocide and ethnic cleansing, in November 2002, the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) produced an article on Arab population growth and density in Israel. The study was conducted in 2001, and compares the Israeli Arab population in Israel between 1948 and 2001.The authors also predict the amount of growth in the population by the year 2020. According to the study, 156,000 Arabs lived in Israel in 1948. They comprised approximately 19% of the population. In 2001, 1.2 million Arabic people populated the area, the proportion of Arab residents remained at 19% in 2001. The researchers predict that by 2020, the Israeli Arab population in Israel will have increased to 2 million people and will comprise somewhere between 21% to 24% of Israel's population. On average, the proportion of Israeli Arabs increases 3.4% each year.
The empirical evidence of Israeli Arab growth in Israel simply cannot support the false accusation that Israel is committing genocide, the Israeli Arab population growth shows a healthy, steady, and resilient population growth over the years. As for the Palestinian Arabs; The demographic statistics of The World Factbook and the Israel Central Bureau of Statistics estimated that the Palestinian Arab population in the 'West Bank' (Judea and Samaria) including East Jerusalem, and the Gaza Strip, amounted to 5.79 million people in 2017. Of these, 2.16 million Palestinian Arabs lived in the 'West Bank', and 1.79 million lived in the Gaza Strip. In 1945, during the British mandate, approximately one million Palestinian Arabs lived in the territories, meaning after years of Palestinian Arab emigration to the United States and the European Union, 5.79 million have remained and increased through natural growth. The accusation of genocide and ethnic cleansing of the Palestinian Arabs simply has no basis in fact.
It is simply a knowingly mendacious libel, chosen for its Holocaust associations.
As for the accusation of Israel being an apartheid state, I am reminded of my own experience not in Israel but in New York during the late 1960’s and early 1970’s in which black-American pupils were bused to my High School due to the institutional segregation that had been the norm. In Israel, Israeli Arabs have been integrated into all spheres of life for the past half a century with Israeli Arabs appointed as Judges in the Israeli Supreme Court, senior Arab academicians in Israel’s Universities, in the educational system, in the health system with Israeli Arabs having a prominent and contributory role as senior physicians, in nursing, and para medical professions. The Israeli Knesset, our parliament, includes around 10% Israeli Arab parliamentarians elected in free and democratic elections. In any office, school or factory Jews and Arabs enter the building through the same entrance, use the same restrooms, eat in the same dining halls, and lie in beds side by side in Israel’s hospitals.
The accusation of Israel being an apartheid state is totally detached from reality and is another purposeful and mendacious attempt to create a comparison with South Africa's historic oppression of people of color. So what makes these Palestinian Arab supporters so unwilling to be offended? Why do they respond with a Pavlovian type response and blame the Jews and Israel for their shortcomings?
Palestinian Arabs are taught that they are superior and that the Jews are inferior. Palestinian Arab culture’s self-glorification has only achieved the very opposite within their society and for their attempt to create a national identity. The Palestinian interaction with the State of Israel has exposed them to Israel’s superior military, administrative, and intellectual achievements. Israel’s diversity and respect for human rights exposes the Palestinian Arab scandaloua treatment of women and the extreme separation of the sexes that has crippled their society. It was not too long ago that Palestinian Arab homosexuals were thrown off the roofs of 15 story buildings in the Gaza Strip by Hamas, or beheaded by family members living in the 'West Bank'.
Palestinian Arabs insist that their shortcomings are inflicted on them by the Jews and Israel, yet rather than being proud, they are silently deeply ashamed of what they see around them in Palestinian Arab society.
This overwhelming discrepancy between the regressive reality of Palestinian Arab society and the need to project a blaming strategy on the Jews and Israel has not only succeeded beyond their dreams, but has also made them prisoners of their own making. Other than blaming the State of Israel, or glorifying the terror war against the Jews, the Palestinian Arabs have nothing to show for their 100 years of resistance against the Jews, starting decades before they began to call themselves a people, with the destruction of the Gaza Strip being only the latest example of their inability to move beyond their hatred and unwillingness to be offended by the truth.
The Egyptian elephant in the room
Israel is rapidly approaching the final stages of the war against the Iranian-backed terror organization Hamas as the IDF approaches the town of Rafah located adjacent to the Egyptian border. It will soon begin the expected elimination of the last vestiges of Hamas’s remaining terror forces and their leadership. Since the Oct 7th massacre of Israeli communities, the IDF operation, the hostages and over five hundred miles of underground terror tunnels throughout the Gaza Strip have been widely reported by the international media. And Egypt's role? To a large extent, the international media have ignored Egypt’s role over the past two decades in allowing Hamas to build an extensive underground tunnel system between the Gaza Strip and Egyptian territory in the Sinai Peninsula.
Military analysts have estimated that in the Rafah border town alone there are hundreds of tunnels, some wide enough to allow transport vehicles to pass thru from Egyptian territory into the Gaza Strip, supposedly clandestinely. Egypt was silently complicit and contributed to Hamas’ military build-up, aiding Hamas in becoming a strategic threat for the State of Israel. So as the Egyptian elephant in the room becomes more and more visible, questions have been raised in recent weeks. Despite Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi’s repetitive claim that Cairo is playing a very positive role in de-escalating the Gaza crisis, Hamas would not have been able to pose a threat to the State of Israel without the implicit and unrestricted approval of the Egyptian Army and Egypt’s political leadership.
Hamas smuggled weapons, ammunition/missiles, fuel, explosives, and so forth through tunnels under the Egypt-Gaza border in the run-up to its October 7 attack and massacre of Israeli’s living in border towns. The Hamas terrorists reportedly carried the armaments below the Philadelphi Route, a narrow land corridor that separates Egypt territory from the Gaza Strip. Egypt’s claim to de-escalate and bring an end to the war would be more credible had they neutralized the tunnels that provided a critical artery for supplying weapons to the Iranian-backed Hamas terror organizations in Gaza.
Egypt and Israel signed a historic peace agreement in March 1979 to end hostilities and normalize relations. It marked the first treaty of its kind between an Arab country and Israel. The peace agreement between Egypt and Israel is viewed as having reshaped the history of the Arab-Israeli conflict for the better. Israel wanted to secure its Southern border and diminish the potential military threat by the region’s largest and most powerful Arab country. Egypt wanted to restore its sovereignty over the Sinai Peninsula, which it lost in the 1967 Six-Day War. It also wanted to redirect resources from military spending to strengthen its economy.
In 2018, the two countries signed a deal for Israeli gas exports to Egypt for 10 years, worth US$15 billion. This was followed by the establishment of the Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum in Cairo with other regional partners. Israel’s gas exports are crucial for Egypt’s economy. They also support Egypt’s aspiration to become a regional energy hub. Lastly, Egypt wanted to strengthen its ties with the United States, by being at peace with its ally, Israel. With the bilateral agreements between Egypt and Israel having so many positive and strategic benefits for the Egyptian government, Hamas’ military build-up with Egypt’s tacit approval seems to be counter-intuitive and clearly against the national interests of Egypt.
Although Egypt is a poor country, with a low GDP per capita rating, with tens of millions of Egyptians forced to live in cemeteries or boxes as a substitute for a home; Egypt has built up the strongest army among the Arab nations of the Middle East with over: 5,000 tanks, hundreds of advanced fighter warplanes and helicopters, over 100 naval vessels and submarines, and an estimated one million soldiers in uniform. A study by the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies reported that Egypt's air force has undergone the most significant modernization of any military in the Arab world. "From the point of view of weapon systems," the author concluded, "the military-technological gap between the Egyptian and Israeli Air Forces is gradually narrowing." In addition, the “Egyptian Air Force’s increasing confidence is reflected in its acquisition of aircraft for deep-penetration strikes into enemy territory.” Egypt now has some of the most sophisticated U.S.-made weapons, including Abrams tanks, F-16 fighter planes, and Apache attack helicopters. A critical footnote to Egypt’s military buildup; Western intelligence agencies are aware of and have leaked details that Israel - the country Egypt signed a peace treaty with - is the "enemy" in all of Egypt's war games.
Israel’s past experience with Arab strategic partners such as Iran during the Shah era, and Turkey before the Erdogan regime, leave Israel no choice but to carefully monitor Egypt's buildup. The United States has long turned a blind eye to Iranian smuggling through Egypt to arm, equip, and train Hamas. More worrying to Israel’s military planners has been the United States turning a blind eye to Egypt’s’ clandestine construction of as many as 12 major tunnels under the Suez canal all pointing towards Israel. Egyptian forces have staged large-scale military training exercises which included simulated operations crossing into the Sinai using these underground tunnels against an “unnamed adversary to the east”(meaning Israel).
Israel can no longer ignore the astounding armament rate of the Egyptian army, which has procured the very best offensive weaponry from the West in recent years. One Israeli military analyst expressed an assessment that leaves no doubt; "One day, all of it will be turned against us."
Egypt has amassed a substantial offensive military capability in recent years that can no longer be ignored by Israel. Although Egypt has a formal peace agreement with Israel, reaffirming Egypt as Israel’s strategic partner should start with the Egyptians shutting down completely the illicit smuggling tunnels between Egypt and the Gaza Strip. This means ending any possibility that Hamas can re-arm and likewise ensure that Hamas leaders use those tunnels as an escape hatch to avoid the consequences of their atrocities on Oct 7. Should Egypt’s leaders including Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi’s refrain from these necessary actions, the prospect for continued stable relations with Israel would diminish substantially.